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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."